Gurgle! Gurgle! Paris. Are You There?
There's no need to get out or bring your water wings just yet.However,
slowly and methodically, with fingers crossed and hopes that it won't
happen, Paris is starting the year by preparing for possibly the city's
worst floods since the record overflow of the Seine in 1910.
The
French capital already has been struck a number of times by what
generally are referred to as "Centennial" floods because they have
occurred not exactly but more or less every 100 years. The worst one
was in 1658, when the Seine rose to a height of 8.96 meters at the
official measuring point under the Pont d'Austerlitz near the Gare de
Lyon in the eastern part of the capital.
But
there have been many other memorable overflows. There was one in 1740,
another in 1924 and the memorable high-water levels of 1910. The latter
still are widely used--but often abused--as a guide to what could be
flood-prone and thus not normally constructible land. In 1910, the
Seine's level reached 8.62 meters, inundating Paris' underground
Metropolitain transport system and flooding out most of the city's well
known tourist, commercial and chic residential areas.
Those
areas--which include the Champs Elysées, the Place de la Concorde, the
French parliament buildings, the Latin Quarter on the left bank of the
Seine, the National Library, the Grand and Petit Palais, the Louvre,
the Musée d'Orsay and 12 other museums--all still are considered as
high risk by the city planners responsible for the preparations to head
off or diminish the effect of another possible "Centennial" deluge.
It
is more or less common every year for the Parisian thoroughfares that
run along the right banks, berges, of the Seine to be closed
periodically whenever the river water levels reach 3.3 meters. Savvy
Parisians don't carry measuring sticks all the time but they general
gauge the trouble level by watching the statue of the Zouave, a
baggy-trousered, uniformed colonial soldier from France's former
African colonies, standing hand on hip at the foot of one of the
pillars of the Pont de l'Alma, the bridge that crosses the Seine just
before the river bends left and flows toward the Eiffel tower.
When
the Zouave's feet get covered with water one can expect to have the
berges closed--and possibly more trouble on the way. In 1910, the
Zouave was bathed in the Seine right up to his goatee.
Having
to close the berges represents a minor problem, however, compared to
the effect of a "Centennial" flood. For that the council's worst-case
scenarios foresee perhaps as many as 266,000 persons flooded out in the
city itself and up to 600,000 if the surrounding Ile-de-France
countryside along each bank of the Seine is included.
They
go on to predict--once again as worst-case forecasts--some 870,000
people cut off from electricity; 300,000 homes without gas service;
nearly 30,000 persons needing transfer from flood-threatened hospitals
or old-peoples' homes; and level of water pollution from debris and
submerged garbage that would cut off drinking water supplies in the
flooded areas.
The Council
cautions that such an event could occur at any time between roughly
this January and the end of next April, depending on the vagaries of
the weather. However--and this is the good news--if a rise in the
Seine's level is in store, it will be gradual, leaving time to prepare.
What's more, it also might not occur for many more months, years, or
even decades. "It's like rolling dice," as one planning offiicial
described it. "You can get all sixes twice in a row or never get them
at all."
No one doubts that the possibility is there, however, and the city council simply doesn't want to take chances.
That's
why, early this December, Paris officials began regular weekly meetings
not only with local transport, gas and electricity company officials
but also with their counterparts from the geographical departments that
surround the city to coordinate their anti-flood precautionary
measures. Simultaneously, the Paris city council put out a call for
bids to supply flat-bottomed boats that could be used, if worst comes
to worst, to reach flooded areas and perhaps evacuate stranded
Parisians. For a week during the floods of 1910 such boats were the
only operable means of transport in the city.
Also,
in mid-December, the city's anti-flood planners submitted for council
debate a long- term program radically to increase the anti-flood
requirements in the Parisian zoning regulations and building codes. At
the moment as much as 20 % of the capital is located in what is called
the "blue zone," which would almost certainly be affected by
"Centennial" water levels. Those figures would reach 30% in the very,
very posh 4th, 5th and 7th arrondissements, or districts, that border
the Seine near the center of the city
In
parts of that zone, where the Seine frequently rises to or past the 2.5
meter "vigilance" level, the new proposed building codes would forbid
the establishment of dry cleaning plants, gas stations or paint stores
because of the pollution risk should they become flooded. Private
apartments would not be permitted at ground level unless they would be
two-floor affairs allowing the inhabitants to take refuge at a higher
level.
Elevator, electric,
telephone and water installations would have to be located on upper
floors or built so as to be totally waterproof. Owners of existing
buildings not in conformity with the new regulations would have five
years to make the necessary changes, and insurance companies would be
exempted from damage reimbursement requirements if the changes weren't
made.
The main Parisian
museums located in the danger areas haven't waited around. They already
have drawn up plans and in some cases already have begun shifting
reserves or contracting for speedy possible transfer of many of their
precious art works stored in the museum basements to safer and
higher-up storage elsewhere.
As
everywhere, a tightening of the flood-zone regulations has its
supporters and its opponents. While many want to be better protected,
the changes, if they are voted through, will mean less constructible
land available in the capital and higher costs for building renovations
where construction already exists.
Down
the line, there are few who don't foresee an inevitable rise in house,
apartment and commercial property prices throughout the capital's
affected areas. Already there is a long list of applications on file
for special exemptions from the rules.
While
considerable debate is expected on the proposals within the city
council, much of what is or isn't decided will have to be submitted
again for scrutiny by the French parliament, a submission scheduled at
the moment for this coming spring.
However,
although the proposals may be modified or diluted before final
approval, there is little doubt that the effort to get out in front of
the problems another "Centennial" flood would cause will have
considerable backing. The cost of dealing with the damage created by
such an inundation, if it should occur, has been estimated at
considerably more than eight billion dollars for Paris and the Ile de
France alone.
In recent years,
the capital itself has escaped major flood difficulties in part because
of a series of dams built up-river along the Seine's 776-kilometer
trajectory from its source in France's eastern mountains to its
eventual outlet into the sea at Le Havre on the Normandy coast. Not so,
however, for many of France's other cities and regions whose
inhabitants have been hard hit by long-quiescent rivers' overflowing
their banks.
The natural
dangers of heavy rainfall or melting snow near the rivers' sources are
part of the cause. Environmentalists and others insist, however, that a
greater villain has been all-too- frequent permission to build in
floodable areas, in addition to often-unrestricted construction and
agricultural or industrial use of land that has weakened nature's
built-in brakes on such overflows.
One
thing is certain. Flood-prevention is a topic to which millions of
French citizens easily relate, and the politicians responsible for
looking ahead and acting in time are well aware of it. Those who ignore
that responsibility may well expect to be submerged themselves by voter
indignation next time there's a chance at the polls.
Even water wings wouldn't save them.
For a truly romantic way to see Paris, take a cruise from Concierge: Seine River Cruise and Eiffel Tower Dinner.
